How to Use the Event Contract Simulator
The purpose of simulation is not a single result. Apply consistent rules, record decisions, and review whether your judgment remains stable across intervals and market conditions.
What Does the Simulator Record?
After choosing a symbol and settlement period, predict whether the closing price will be above or below the opening price. The simulator records times, prices, directions, P/L, and win rate.
How to Choose a Settlement Period
- One-minute movement is fast and more affected by random noise.
- Ten- and thirty-minute periods are useful for short-term structure.
- One-hour periods provide more context for trends, support, resistance, and indicators.
- Daily periods require broader market context rather than local movement alone.
Simulation Amount and P/L
The simulation amount standardizes each record and is limited to 5–250. P/L summarizes simulated results rather than real returns, so review it together with win rate.
How to Interpret Win Rate
Win rate equals correct predictions divided by settled predictions. Small samples are easily affected by chance, so compare methods under consistent symbols, periods, and rules.
A Repeatable Review Workflow
- Use one symbol and one settlement period.
- Record the reason for each decision, such as trend, range, or indicator state.
- Complete a group of simulations without changing rules after one result.
- Review the table to identify the market conditions associated with errors.
- Start a new sample after changing rules instead of mixing methods.